RateHub co-founder warns against impact of US Fed rate hike


RateHub co-founder warns against impact of US Fed rate hike

Wall Street ended higher on Friday but the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq snapped a six-week winning streak as worries about valuations and the lack of detail on President Donald Trump's policy proposals threw a wrinkle in a post-election rally.

On the campaign trail the Republican candidate said Yellen should be "ashamed" of the Fed's low interest rate policy, and accused it of creating a "false stock market".

Respondents said there's a 15 per cent chance that Trump will reappoint Yellen for another four years as chair when her term expires next February. So what is the likely impact on the U.S. and the global economy? While it's important to be aware, he said, don't expect any drastic increases - the Fed will move gradually. Most Fed leaders plan to raise rates three times this year, but that could change very quickly depending on the economy's performance.

In 2013, then-Chairman Ben Bernanke sent markets into a panic merely by mentioning that the Fed was contemplating slowing the pace of its bond purchases, which it was using then to keep long-term borrowing rates low.

Toshiba failed to submit audited third-quarter earnings for a second time on Tuesday, gaining a one-month extension, and said it would speed up looking at whether to sell a majority of its USA nuclear unit Westinghouse. Wage rises push up demand, and that triggers higher prices.

And the 10-year TIPS breakeven rate, another measure of inflation expectations tracked by the Fed, last month reached its highest levels since September 2014. But there has so far been a lack of clarity when it comes to the policy details. And inflation, which had stayed undesirably low for years, is edging near the 2 percent annual rate that the Fed views as optimal. How might the markets react? The central bank is transitioning to a more aggressive path of raising rates.

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The firm had been hammered as news it would not release its numbers Tuesday raised fears it could be yanked from Japan's premier stock exchange.

Turbulence could come from the foreign exchange markets if the dollar rises following a slump in the Turkish lira, Indonesian rupiah, Mexican peso or other developing world currency. Will the new nominees favor letting bonds simply mature or will they pursue an active selling program? That also means if your consumers are dependent on credit, they might think twice before buying when interest rates rise. He cited the risk of a shift to four this year as well.

While the overall U.S unemployment rate is now below the Fed's 5% target, thereby technically meeting its definition of "full employment", other indicators imply that the US labour market is still far from healthy. The market probability of a rate hike has risen for the decision due Wednesday afternoon. The euro fell to $1.0639 from $1.0660, and the dollar dipped to 114.72 Japanese yen from 114.77 yen. Now China is letting the yen fall and with interest rate rises in the United States pushing up the dollar, the gap will widen, increasing the cost of USA exports and reducing import prices. "The net positive only holds if we do not end up in a trade war".

Yet regardless of the answer, the market seems far less nervous about the prospect of rate increases than it was in recent years.

Bottom line: if rates go up Wednesday, it's good news for savers but you still need to be patient.



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